Dut Deresi
Extreme Rainfall Did Not Bring Water. It Revealed Boundaries.
For most of the year, Dut Deresi is quiet.
That quietness often creates the assumption of safety.
But Dut Deresi does not create risk.
It reveals where risk accumulates.
During periods of extreme rainfall affecting Northern Cyprus, the stream does not announce itself with sudden destruction. Instead, it applies slow, repeated pressure, reminding the surrounding system where its limits lie.
This behavior became visible again on January 24, 2026.
But it was not the first time.
The First Reminder: December 9, 2025
Dut Deresi had already spoken before January.
On December 9, 2025, under a similar rainfall pattern, the stream’s channel remained intact, yet its retention time increased. Water stayed longer, surface pressure expanded into adjacent zones, and the system’s weak points became visible.
There was no dramatic flooding.
There were no headlines.
But there was a clear warning.
What happened on January 24, 2026 was not a new event.
It was the repetition of a behavior that had already begun in December.
From an insurance perspective, this distinction is critical.
Risk is not defined by the first reminder.
It is confirmed by the second repetition.
Why Dut Deresi Always Speaks in the Same Places
Field observations consistently show three recurring behaviors:
- As rainfall duration increases, the stream’s saturation time extends
- Pressure manifests not inside the channel, but in adjacent transition zones
- Risk grows not with the first rainfall, but with consecutive events
This is why the correct question is never:
“Did it overflow?”
The correct question is:
“Which repetition is this?”
When Does Overflow Risk Actually Form?
Overflow is not a moment.
It is a process of accumulation.
For Dut Deresi, risk escalates when:
- The basin reaches saturation
- Rainfall arrives in short, successive intervals
- Municipal rainwater systems intersect with natural stream flow
At that point, damage does not begin in the stream itself.
It begins in areas that have forgotten they belong to the stream’s memory.
Geographic Impact Zone (Behavioral, Not Administrative)
Dut Deresi’s influence does not follow municipal borders.
It follows flow logic.
Observed impact corridor:
With each repeated rainfall, pressure moves step by step downstream.
What Extreme Rainfall Changed
Extreme rainfall did not increase risk around Dut Deresi.
It made risk habitual.
Today:
- Water no longer flows away quickly, it waits
- Damage appears not after the first event, but after the second or third
- The phrase “nothing happened” has become misleading
This is not a flood narrative.
It is a repetition narrative.
How CAN Sigorta Reads Dut Deresi
For CAN Sigorta, Dut Deresi is not a claim location.
It is an early-warning mechanism.
Days like December 9 and January 24 are not loss days.
They are reading days.
Because risk does not grow loudly.
It grows through quiet repetition.
Final Observation
Dut Deresi remains quiet.
But after every extreme rainfall, it repeats the same message:
The water did not arrive.
It remembered its place.
For CAN Sigorta, the issue is not overflow.
It is repeatability.
Because insurance does not respond to what happens once.
It responds to what keeps happening.
Author’s Note
This article is based on on-site observations made during the extreme rainfall events affecting Northern Cyprus on December 9, 2025 and January 24, 2026, and was written by CAN Sigorta Kanlıköy Regional Representative Mustafa Çelebi.